Tag Archives: Primary

Since When?

Probably the most important question to be asked right now… since when?

For example: after the Iowa caucus, Ben Carson did exactly everything he could to damage Ted Cruz in favor of Donald Trump. Then, when there wasn’t any more strategic damage to do, he dropped out and shortly thereafter endorsed Trump.

Chris Christie destroyed Marco Rubio in a debate just before New Hampshire, a move that also showed him as his unlikable self. The damage Rubio took was probably enough that it is why he did not pull the extra couple percent to beat Trump in South Carolina. Shortly thereafter, Christie dropped out of the race and then proceeded to endorse Trump.

I realize that this sounds conspiratorial but think about it happening like this:

  1. Carson feels cheated out of a strong finish in Iowa
  2. Phone rings
  3. Trump says ‘You were robbed! Ted lied and lied and cheated you (and me) out of our rightful Iowa wins (slash second place).
  4. Together we can take him down…
  5. And so Carson runs with Trump’s attack lines, thinking (as implied by Trump possibly) that Cruz’s support will evaporate and drift mostly his way.
  6. Trump nurtures the delusion
  7. Carson only gets out after he cant hurt Cruz any more, and is promised a position in Trumps admin… illegal, but basically he admitted there was an offer made in exchange for the endorsement…
  8. Carson may still not realize that he was played… or he participated the whole time.. either way, his voters (who would probably not have voted for Trump) ought to be outraged.

As for Christie

  1. Cant gain any traction in NH
  2. ‘Phone rings’
  3. I have a great line of attack against Rubio… but it wont work from me… says Trump
  4. Christie dices Rubio
  5. Christie realizes that he was played for a fool…

chris_christie

So, at what point did Carson and Christie become Trump supporters… Since When? Supporting a candidate after dropping out is normal… doing so beforehand is at the very least fraudulent in ethical terms… not sure about legally though.

Which begs the most important question: What is Kasich doing the the race? If we list his actions, it would seem that everything he is doing disproportionately assists Trump. He campaigned in Utah, on the off beat chance he could keep Cruz under the 50% cutoff. He tried to take delegates in WI when, camping in NY and Pennsylvania would be certain to gain him delegates, where spending time and money in WI would almost certainly not, and also almost certainly affect Cruz, not Trump….

Since when?

Or better yet: When will Kasich exit the race and endorse Trump?

A Theory on American Voters

At this point, despite the fact that he is clearly not a Republican, Trump appears to be set to win the nomination for the Republican party.  So I’d like to propose a theory, sort of a unified theory of American voting. That is, that American voters belong to three parties… but we only have two parties to choose from. (Perhaps due to the constant, and idiotic, political binary of right-left-center.) The three actual parties are socialist, populist and small-r republican. But what we have are the Democratic and the Republican parties.

I suspect that roughly 1/4 -1/3 of both the Republicans and the Democrats are actually populists. And Trump is the ‘Populist party’ nominee. This would explain how he manages to get roughly a third of the primary vote every single time.

To push this further, I think that the populists in the country, not having any party apparatus through which to express their political desires, generally gravitate to belonging to whatever party, Democrat or Republican, that runs a given state if that party is dominant enough. So, for example, in Alabama, where the Democrats are becoming an endangered species, the populists (roughly 33% of the electorate) vote something like 80/20 republican/democrat. But in New York state, the populists vote roughly 80/20 democrat/republican. This isn’t just a cynical ploy on their part. Anyone who would be a ‘Populist party’ politician at the state level would have to run and get elected in the dominant party.

If we did actually have a populist party, we might have states that are ~40% republican, and about 25-30% each democrat and populist (like maybe Texas) and some other states with ~40% democrat and the other split (like maybe Pennsylvania) and some that are run by the populist party… Not sure if this would disproportionally harm either the Republican party or the Democrat party since I suspect that every state has at least 20% populists…

Anyway, the main problem (other than the 20-?% of the country that are socialists) is that while our country has voters for a Leftist party, a populist party and a republican (small r again) party, we are governed by a small cadre of senators and representatives and bureaucrats who are in their own little, powerful and power-hungry ‘globalist party’…

Anyway, its a theory and it isn’t a conspiracy, which already puts it far above the general fever-swamps of Internet theories…

 

 

 

Rubio voters supported Trump

Rubio and Kasich must go… It has been proven that they are merely vanity candidates whose effect is making the nomination easier for Trump to win. Whether you like it or not, the choice is not between Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Kasich, the choice is only between Trump and Cruz, and every vote for the perennial losers Rubio and Kasich helps Trump.

Think that is wrong, consider this: if Rubio’s voters had stayed home in Idaho, Trump would have won no delegates there. If you look at the vote tallies in ID  (from RCP), Cruz had about 101k, Trump about 62k, Rubio 35k and Kasich 16k. With those numbers, Cruz took about 45% of the vote. If all Rubio voters had stayed home, those same numbers would have given Cruz about 56% of the vote (leaving Kasich voters in the calculation) and all 32 delegates. (The same method, just leaving out Kasich gives Cruz 50.7% of the vote… so this goes for Kasich voters too.) So, intentionally or not, those 35k people who voted for Rubio, by voting for Rubio, gave Trump 12 delegates. They actively, though unintentionally, supported Trump… That should turn the stomach of anyone who voted Rubio or Kasich yesterday. (With some exception to the Kasich voters in MI… at least it seemed plausible from the polling that he might win. But now, he is clearly in the same category as Rubio.)

Its hard not to be frustrated…. But this is why Cruz ought to crush Kasich and Rubio in their home states. If those two stay in, Trump will win the nomination. If they don’t, we get to at least have a choice. You may not like Cruz, but consider if you actually want to hand delegates to Trump (as Rubio voters did in ID).

 

(And yes, two days ago I finally broke down and gave a few bucks to Cruz… because I figured this was coming… but I figured that in all honesty I should let people know that I am writing this as a very small dollar donor to Cruz…)